Two thirds of glaciers could disappear by 2100

The world’s glaciers are shrinking and disappearing faster than scientists thought, with two-thirds of them predicted to disappear by the end of the century if current climate change trends continue, according to a new study.

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Glaciers disappearing faster

But if the world can limit future warming to just a few tenths of a degree more and meet international targets — which is technically possible, but unlikely according to many scientists — then just under half of the planet’s glaciers will disappear, says the same study. Most small glaciers are headed for extinction, according to the authors.

In the worst case – also unlikely – of warming of several degrees, 83% of the world’s glaciers would possibly disappear by the year 2100, say the authors of the research.

The study, published Thursday in the journal Science, looked at the planet’s 215,000 glaciers on land—not counting those on top of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets—more comprehensively than previous research.  The scientists then used computer simulations to calculate, at different levels of warming, how many glaciers would disappear, how many trillion tons of ice would melt, and how much would contribute to sea level rise.

Record a temperature increase

The world is currently on track to record a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, which by the year 2100 would mean the loss of 32% of the global mass of glaciers, that is 48.5 billion tons of ice, as well as the disappearance of 68% of the glaciers. This would raise sea levels by 115 millimetres (4.5 inches), adding to seas already rising from melting ice sheets and warmer water, according to David Rounce, lead author of the study.

“Whatever happens, we’re going to lose a lot of the glaciers,” said Rounce, a glaciologist and professor of engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. “But we have the ability to make a difference by limiting how many glaciers we lose.”

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“For many small glaciers it’s too late,” said study co-author Regine Hock, a glaciologist at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks campus and the University of Oslo in Norway. “However, globally our results clearly show that every degree of global temperature matters in keeping as much ice locked up as possible in glaciers.”

Ice loss

Predicted ice loss for 2100 ranges from 38.7 trillion metric tons to 64.4 trillion tons, depending on how much the planet warms and how much coal, oil and gas is burned, according to the study.

The research estimates that the melting will increase sea level between 90 millimetres (3.5 inches) in the best case and 166 millimeters (6.5 inches) in the worst, which is between 4% and 14%. more than previous projections.

Those 4.5 inches (11 centimetres) of sea level rise from glaciers would mean that more than 10 million people worldwide—and more than 100,000 in the United States—would live below the tide line. high, which would otherwise be higher, said Ben Strauss, a sea level rise researcher and executive director of Climate Central, a nonprofit organization that specializes in climate studies. Sea level rise during the 20th century from climate change increased the storm surge from 2012 Hurricane Sandy by about 10 centimetres (4 inches), which alone caused about $8 billion in damage, he said.

Sea level rise

Scientists say future sea level rise will be due more to melting ice sheets than glaciers.

But the loss of glaciers goes beyond the rise in sea levels. It means reduced water supplies for much of the world’s population, an increased risk of flooding from melting glaciers, and the loss of historic ice-covered areas, from Alaska to the Alps or even near Everest Base Camp. , as explained by several scientists to The Associated Press.

The world is currently on track to record a temperature increase of 2.7 degrees Celsius (4.9 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to pre-industrial times, which by the year 2100 would mean the loss of 32% of the global mass of glaciers, that is, 48.5 billion tons of ice, as well as the disappearance of 68% of the glaciers. This would raise sea levels by 115 millimeters (4.5 inches), adding to seas already rising from melting ice sheets and warmer water, according to David Rounce, lead author of the study.