Erratic Weather Patterns Disrupt Crop Cycles in Central India

India is witnessing a sharp shift in early summer weather patterns, with rainfall, heat, and storms occurring together across regions instead of following a stable seasonal pattern. The latest updates from the India Meteorological Department show that April has started with above-normal rainfall activity in many parts of the country, even as heatwave risks remain in others. The shift is driven by a combination of western disturbances, local wind systems, and cyclonic circulations that are interacting at the same time.

In North India, a fresh western disturbance is bringing rain and snowfall across the Himalayan region, including Jammu and Kashmir, with cloudy conditions and intermittent precipitation expected through the first week of April.

At the same time, central and western India are seeing unseasonal rainfall and thunderstorms. Nagpur recorded around 20 mm of rain in early April, while Pune saw an extreme event with over 80 mm rainfall in just a few hours, the highest recorded for the city in more than a century.

This overlap of rainfall and heat signals a break from earlier patterns where April was mostly dry and hot across large parts of India.

Rainfall above normal but uneven across regions

IMD’s latest seasonal outlook indicates that rainfall in April 2026 is likely to be above normal across most of the country, estimated at around 112 percent of the long-period average.

Recent data also shows that pre-monsoon rainfall between March and early April has already exceeded normal levels in several regions. Central India recorded rainfall departures as high as 68 percent above normal during recent weeks, while southern and eastern regions also reported above-average rainfall.

This increase in rainfall is not evenly distributed. Some regions are receiving intense short bursts of rain, while others continue to face dry spells. Heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for multiple states including Gujarat, where thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds are expected due to combined weather systems.

In northern and eastern India, alerts have been issued for rain and strong winds across more than 20 states, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, with hailstorms also expected in some areas.

This uneven spread creates uncertainty for farmers who depend on predictable rainfall timing for sowing and harvesting.

Heatwave risk continues despite rainfall activity

Even with increased rainfall, heatwave conditions remain a concern across several regions. IMD forecasts show that the number of heatwave days during April to June is likely to be above normal in many parts of the country.

Coastal and eastern regions, including Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Andhra Pradesh, are expected to face more frequent heatwave days.

In southern India, cities like Chennai have already recorded rising temperatures above 36°C, with forecasts indicating further increase in the coming days due to delayed sea breeze and dry winds.

In Andhra Pradesh, officials have flagged early heatwave conditions, with higher daytime temperatures and warm nights expected through April.

This combination of rain and heat within short periods is increasing stress on crops, especially during sensitive growth stages.

Crop cycles disrupted during sowing and harvesting stages

The current weather pattern is directly affecting agricultural cycles. Farmers are facing rainfall during harvesting periods and heat during flowering stages, both of which reduce yield and quality.

Unseasonal rain has already damaged harvested crops in several regions. Sudden downpours, like those seen in Pune and central India, lead to waterlogging and spoil crops left in open fields.

At the same time, rising temperatures during flowering stages affect crops like wheat, pulses, and oilseeds. Heat stress can reduce grain formation and lower overall yield.

In southern states, agricultural officials have warned that crops such as paddy, maize, pulses, banana, and mango may be affected by the combined impact of heat and rainfall variability.

Farmers are also dealing with delayed sowing decisions due to uncertain rainfall timing. When rain arrives earlier or later than expected, it disrupts the entire crop calendar.

Farmers adjust practices to cope with shifting weather

Farmers across regions are adjusting their practices based on changing conditions. Many are shifting sowing dates to avoid heat stress or heavy rainfall periods.

Agricultural advisories are encouraging the use of short-duration crop varieties. These varieties mature faster and reduce exposure to weather risks.

Some farmers are also moving towards crops that require less water and can tolerate heat, such as millets and pulses.

Use of weather-based advisories is increasing. Farmers are relying on district-level forecasts to plan irrigation, pesticide use, and harvesting.

In regions like Vidarbha, forecasts already indicate a “mixed summer” pattern, with both heatwave days and rainfall expected in April.

This forces farmers to remain flexible and adjust decisions frequently.