Agriculture and Farming Technology Updates

Effect of Climate Change on Agriculture

The wheat crop in these districts is likely to be affected by heat stress.


Climate change is perceptible through an increase in the average temperature of all of India and an increased frequency of extreme rainfall events in the last three decades. This causes fluctuations in the production of the main crops in different years.

Climate Change and Agriculture

The impact of climate change on Indian agriculture was studied in National Innovations in Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA). Rainfed rice yields in India are projected to decline marginally (<2.5%) in 2050 and 2080 and irrigated rice yields by 7% in 2050 and 10% in the 2080 scenarios. , wheat yields are projected to decline by 6-25% in 2100 and maize yields by 18-23%. Future climates are likely to benefit chickpeas with an increase in productivity (23-54%).

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The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) started a NICRA network project in 2011 to address the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture. The NICRA project is being reviewed by a High-Level Monitoring Committee (HLMC) under the chairmanship of the Secretary, DARE and DG, ICAR with invited members representing different Ministries, Government of India. This committee recommends that steps be taken through NICRA to make Indian agriculture more resilient to climate change. In addition, a committee of experts periodically reviews the project and advises on various aspects.

wheat crop affected 

The assessment of the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change is carried out by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). Such assessment was for 573 rural districts of India (excluding Union Territories of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep). According to the vulnerability analysis, 109 districts out of 573 rural districts (19% of the total districts) are “very high risk” districts, while 201 districts are risk districts.

Integrated simulation model studies indicated that, based on representative concentration pathway 4.5, the maximum temperature is expected to increase from 1 to 1.3 oC in 256 districts, from 1.3 to 1.6 oC in 157 districts (2020 -2049). The increase ranged from <1.3 oC in 199 districts to >1.6 oC in 89 districts. The wheat crop in these districts is likely to be affected by heat stress.

Under the NICRA project, wheat germplasm composed of advanced bred lines and landraces has been tested for heat/drought tolerance. ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) has released high-yielding varieties like HD 2967 and HD 3086 which are being cultivated in large areas of North West and North India. No-till wheat planting has advanced wheat planting in Punjab and Haryana.

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