Kashmir Is Warming, What Does It Mean for Apple Farmers?

Apple farming is one of Kashmir’s most important rural activities, but the climate supporting these orchards is changing. A new study using temperature records from 1980 to 2024 found clear warming across several parts of Jammu and Kashmir, with some high-altitude locations warming by nearly 1°C over the last two decades.

The warming is not the same everywhere. The study found annual mean temperature increases at several mid- and high-elevation locations. Srinagar, Kupwara and Kokernag also recorded significant increases in daytime maximum temperatures. At Pahalgam and Gulmarg, the researchers found warming of up to nearly 1°C over recent decades, showing how mountain conditions are changing.

For apple farmers, temperature matters because it influences when trees move from winter dormancy into flowering and fruit development. A new 2026 study from SKUAST-K examined Gala Redlum apples using three years of observations. It found that accumulated heat, measured through growing degree days, was closely linked with the timing of different growth stages.

Why Does Temperature Matter for Apple Trees?

Apple trees respond to both winter conditions and temperatures during the growing season. Once trees complete their winter requirement, accumulated warmth influences flowering and other stages. If these stages shift, farmers may need to adjust spraying, irrigation, thinning, pollination management and frost protection.

The SKUAST-K study found that the calendar date of different apple growth stages varied between 2023 and 2025. Yet the accumulated growing degree days needed to reach those stages remained within a relatively narrow range. Researchers said this suggests heat-based forecasting could help farmers plan orchard operations more accurately.

This does not mean every apple orchard will respond in exactly the same way. Variety, elevation, slope, aspect, soil, water availability and local weather can influence orchard conditions. A farmer in a higher part of a district may therefore experience different flowering and fruit-development patterns from another farmer several kilometres away.

The changing climate can also increase risks around critical growth stages. Warmer conditions may encourage earlier development, while a late frost can still damage flowers and young fruit. Farmers therefore need to watch both temperature accumulation and short-term weather forecasts rather than relying only on fixed calendar dates.

Can High-Density Orchards Help Farmers Adapt?

High-density planting is already expanding in Jammu and Kashmir. Government data released recently showed that around 300 hectares of traditional apple and walnut orchards had been converted to high-density plantations under different schemes, while another 909.13 hectares had been brought under new high-density plantations over five years.

High-density orchards use dwarf or semi-dwarf rootstocks and closer planting systems. They can begin producing earlier and allow farmers to manage trees more precisely. But high density should not be treated as a complete climate solution. Water availability, rootstock choice, variety, disease pressure and local weather still determine orchard performance.

ICAR’s information on apple cultivation in Jammu and Kashmir recommends high-density planting with suitable rootstocks and superior varieties, along with drip irrigation, fertigation, replacement of old orchards and integrated nutrient management. These practices can improve productivity while helping farmers manage limited water and other farm resources.

Research from Himalayan apple-growing areas also shows that variety selection can influence climate adaptation. An ICAR case study from Himachal Pradesh found that coloured and spur-type apple strains performed better than traditional Delicious cultivars in mid-hill areas. Their lower chilling requirement and different growth characteristics helped farmers improve yield and returns.

What Should Kashmir Farmers Do?

Farmers should not replace established apple varieties simply because temperatures are rising. Before changing an orchard, they should consider local elevation, winter temperatures, water availability, disease pressure, market demand and the performance of proposed varieties in nearby locations.

Temperature-based orchard planning can offer a more practical starting point. Farmers can record flowering, fruit set and maturity dates along with local temperature information. Over several seasons, these records can show whether orchard stages are consistently shifting and help farmers discuss suitable management changes with horticulture experts.

Water management will also become increasingly important. Recent government information on Jammu and Kashmir’s high-density orchards highlights support for drip irrigation, water harvesting structures, farm ponds and other measures. These systems can help farmers manage dry periods and improve water-use efficiency when rainfall becomes less predictable.

Farmers should also protect orchards against weather extremes. Anti-hail nets, mulching, suitable irrigation and timely frost protection can reduce some risks. No single measure can prevent climate-related losses, but combining several measures can make orchards better prepared for changing conditions.

The bigger question is not whether Kashmir will stop growing apples. The more important question is which varieties, rootstocks and orchard systems will perform best in different parts of the Valley as temperatures change. The latest research suggests farmers will increasingly need location-specific information rather than one recommendation for the entire region.

For apple growers, climate adaptation will therefore involve better observation as much as new technology. Tracking temperature, flowering, fruit development, water availability and weather damage can help farmers make decisions based on their own orchard conditions. Research institutions and horticulture departments can use these records to improve future advisories.

Kashmir’s apple economy has already shown that farmers can adapt when new planting systems and varieties become available. The next step is to match those choices with changing climate conditions. As warming continues, decisions made before planting an orchard could become just as important as management decisions made during the season.