Weak Monsoon Can Hurt More Than One Harvest, What It Means for Indian Farmers?

India is facing below-average rainfall in September after an already weak monsoon season. The shortfall is raising concerns for standing kharif crops, particularly as cotton, soybean, maize and rice move through important growth stages that require adequate moisture.

For farmers, the concern extends beyond one harvest. September rainfall can also influence soil moisture available for the coming rabi season. A prolonged shortfall may affect current crops while reducing the water stored in fields for wheat, rapeseed and chickpea planting.

A weak monsoon can create pressure that continues after the rainy season ends. Farmers may use available water to protect standing crops, leaving less groundwater or stored water for the next season. Reduced rainfall can also limit the natural replenishment of groundwater resources.

This creates a difficult farm-level decision. Farmers need to protect their current crop without exhausting resources needed later. The balance becomes especially difficult in areas where agriculture depends heavily on groundwater or where irrigation water remains limited.

A district may receive a reasonable amount of rainfall during a season while individual farms still experience damaging dry periods. Rain falling during a few intense events may not provide the same benefit as rainfall distributed across several weeks.

Farmers therefore need local weather information rather than relying only on national monsoon figures. Field conditions, soil moisture and crop growth can provide a clearer picture of whether rainfall has met the actual needs of a crop.

Soil moisture is becoming a key concern

Rainfall that enters the soil becomes an important resource after the monsoon weakens. Soil moisture can support standing crops and help prepare fields for the next planting season.

A dry September may reduce these reserves. Reuters reported that weak rainfall could affect soil moisture needed for winter crops, creating concerns about planting conditions for wheat, rapeseed and chickpeas.

Irrigation can protect crops when rainfall fails, but it can also increase costs and pressure on groundwater. Punjab recently experienced a sharp increase in power demand as farmers relied more heavily on tubewells during deficient monsoon conditions to irrigate paddy fields.

This shows how a climate problem can quickly become an energy problem. Farmers may save the standing crop through irrigation, while governments and power systems face higher electricity demand. Greater pumping can also increase pressure on groundwater where extraction already remains high.

Indian farmers can face different weather extremes during the same season. Some regions may experience dry spells, while others receive intense rainfall within a short period.

Both conditions can damage agriculture. Drought reduces available moisture, while heavy rainfall can cause waterlogging, soil erosion and crop damage. Farmers therefore need management systems that respond to changing local weather rather than one fixed seasonal pattern.

Weather information can support farm decisions

Weather forecasts cannot remove farming risks, but they can help farmers make better decisions. Information about expected rainfall, temperature and dry spells can influence irrigation, spraying and harvesting schedules.

Government-supported agro-meteorological services provide location-specific advisories based on weather forecasts and crop conditions. Such advisories can help farmers adjust operations according to expected weather instead of relying only on traditional seasonal patterns.

A fixed irrigation schedule may not suit an increasingly uneven rainfall pattern. Farmers should inspect soil moisture and crop conditions before applying water.

This can help avoid unnecessary pumping when deeper soil layers still contain moisture. At the same time, farmers should not wait until severe crop stress appears. Local crop advisories can help identify important stages when water shortages may cause greater losses.

Climate uncertainty may influence what farmers choose to grow. A crop that performs well under one rainfall pattern may become more risky when dry spells or extreme weather events become more frequent.

Farmers should consider local water availability before planting. Crop duration, irrigation requirements and market demand all matter. Changing to a lower-water crop may reduce climate risk, but the farmer also needs a reliable buyer and acceptable income.

Depending entirely on one crop can increase exposure to weather shocks. Crop diversification may spread risk across different planting periods and crop types.

The strategy needs careful planning. Farmers should avoid growing several crops without considering market access and production costs. A diversified farm can still face financial losses if farmers cannot sell the produce or manage the additional labour requirements.

Soil management can improve resilience

Healthy soil can support better water management because organic matter and good soil structure can influence water infiltration and storage. Farmers can use locally suitable practices that reduce erosion and help maintain soil cover.

Crop residues, green manuring and organic amendments are among practices promoted through agricultural extension programmes for improving soil management. ICAR has also conducted farmer outreach programmes focused on balanced fertiliser use and sustainable agricultural practices.

Weather conditions can influence pest and disease activity. Farmers should monitor crops regularly instead of assuming that visible crop stress results only from drought or nutrient problems.

India is expanding technology-based pest surveillance to support earlier detection and location-specific crop advisories. ICAR training programmes have highlighted the use of AI and digital tools for pest monitoring and management decisions.

Climate risks do not affect crop farmers alone. Drought can reduce fodder availability and increase the cost of purchased feed. Heat can also affect animal comfort and productivity.

Livestock farmers should include fodder and water planning in their climate preparation. A farm may have enough feed during a normal season but face shortages when grazing land dries or fodder crops receive inadequate rainfall.

Local planning is more useful than one national response

Climate conditions can differ sharply across India. A farmer in a rainfed area may face a long dry spell, while another farmer receives damaging rainfall during the same period.

This makes location-specific planning important. ICAR’s agricultural advisories stress the need for region-specific guidance because climatic fluctuations and uneven rainfall affect crops differently across India’s agricultural zones.

A basic record of rainfall, irrigation and crop stress can help farmers understand how their own fields respond to changing weather. Farmers can note when dry periods begin, how long they last and which crops show stress first.

These records can support future decisions. Over several seasons, farmers may identify fields that lose moisture quickly or crops that face greater weather risks under local conditions.

Climate preparation should not begin only when a weather warning arrives. Farmers can review the current season before planting the next crop.

They can ask which crops needed the most irrigation, which fields faced moisture stress and whether rainfall arrived at useful times. These answers can help farmers adjust crop choices and water planning.

Farmers should monitor local forecasts, inspect fields regularly and follow district-specific agricultural advisories. They should check soil moisture before irrigating and avoid treating every visible crop problem as a water shortage.

The current weak monsoon shows why climate planning must cover the entire farm. The effects can move from rainfall to crops, groundwater, electricity, livestock and the next planting season.