Weakening Monsoon Raises Risk for Newly Sown Kharif Crops

India’s monsoon is showing signs of weakening over parts of the west, central and southern regions, raising concerns for farmers whose Kharif crops are still at an early growth stage. The India Meteorological Department has warned that rainfall could remain below normal in parts of the country as El Niño conditions strengthen.

The concern is important because many Kharif crops were planted only recently. Cotton, soybean, maize and pulses have shallow root systems during their early growth stages and can face moisture stress if dry spells continue.

Rainfall Deficit Still a Concern

India’s monsoon rainfall was around 12% below the long-period average as of the latest assessment cited by Reuters. Andhra Pradesh was among the states facing a larger deficit, while rainfall distribution remained uneven across different regions.

July brought near-normal rainfall and helped improve soil moisture in many areas. This encouraged farmers to continue sowing Kharif crops. The improvement also reduced some of the pressure created by a poor start to the monsoon season.

The situation is now more uncertain because crops planted in recent weeks have not yet developed deep root systems.

Cotton, Soybean and Pulses Face Risk

Cotton, soybean, maize and pulses depend heavily on adequate rainfall during their early growth stages in rainfed areas.

A prolonged dry period can slow germination, restrict plant growth and reduce the crop’s ability to establish properly. Farmers with access to irrigation may be able to protect crops during short dry spells, but rainfed farmers have fewer options.

The risk is greater in areas where rainfall has already remained below normal.

El Niño Could Add Pressure

The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for the 2026 southwest monsoon season. Its second-stage forecast put seasonal rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with a model error of ±4%.

The weather agency has also highlighted the stronger relationship between El Niño and reduced rainfall during the later part of the monsoon, especially in September.

This makes the next few weeks important for farmers growing crops that depend on August and September rainfall.

Sowing Has Reached Near-Normal Levels

Despite the rainfall concerns, farmers had planted about 96.8 million hectares of summer crops by August 7, according to data cited by Reuters. This was around 2% lower than the corresponding area a year earlier.

The near-normal sowing progress means a large area of farmland is now carrying Kharif crops. Weather conditions during the coming weeks will therefore have a direct bearing on crop growth and final yields.

Farmers will need to monitor local rainfall closely rather than relying only on the national monsoon picture.

What Farmers Can Do During Dry Spells

Agricultural advisories recommend conserving available soil moisture when rainfall becomes irregular.

Farmers can reduce moisture loss through mulching, timely intercultural operations and appropriate irrigation where water is available. Weed control is also important because weeds compete with young crops for limited soil moisture.

Farmers should also follow district-level advisories because rainfall conditions can vary sharply even between nearby areas.

The current monsoon situation shows how quickly agricultural conditions can change during the Kharif season. July rainfall helped improve soil moisture and support sowing, but a prolonged weakening of rainfall could again expose newly planted crops to moisture stress. With El Niño adding uncertainty to the second half of the monsoon, timely weather information and careful water management will be important for protecting Kharif crops.