India is expected to receive below-normal rainfall in September after a weak August monsoon, creating fresh concerns for farmers growing kharif crops. The India Meteorological Department expects September rainfall to remain below 91 percent of the long-period average. The forecast comes after August ended with a significant rainfall deficit, leaving many farmers concerned about moisture levels during an important stage of crop growth.
The rainfall outlook matters because several major crops are now at important growth stages. Cotton, soybean, maize and pulses need suitable soil moisture as they move through different stages of development. A prolonged dry period during September could affect crop growth in rain-fed areas, where farmers depend heavily on the monsoon instead of irrigation.
India recorded a 16 percent rainfall deficit in August, according to reports based on IMD data. A weak August followed by below-normal rainfall in September could increase pressure on soil moisture in areas that have already received less rain than expected.
The impact will not be the same across India.
Some districts may receive enough rainfall, while others could experience long dry spells. Farmers should therefore focus on district-level weather conditions instead of assuming that a national rainfall forecast will produce the same result in every village.
Rainfall distribution can matter as much as the total amount received during a month.
A district may receive a reasonable amount of rain during a few days but still experience crop stress if long dry periods follow.
Kharif crops are entering an important stage
The September rainfall outlook has raised concerns for crops such as cotton, soybean, maize and pulses. These crops are now growing in fields across several parts of India and may face moisture stress if rainfall remains weak for an extended period.
Farmers with irrigation may have more options to manage a dry spell, although additional irrigation also increases costs and can place pressure on local water resources.
Rain-fed farmers have fewer choices.
They depend on the moisture already stored in the soil and any rainfall received during the coming weeks. This makes regular field monitoring important.
Farmers should check whether crops show signs of moisture stress and seek local agricultural advice before making major changes to irrigation or nutrient management.
Weak September rainfall could affect more than the current kharif season. Soil moisture accumulated during the monsoon can help farmers prepare land for the next cropping season. Lower rainfall may reduce available moisture in some areas before farmers begin sowing rabi crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
Reuters reported that weaker rainfall could threaten the soil moisture needed for planting winter crops. The actual impact will depend on rainfall during the remaining monsoon period, irrigation availability and local soil conditions. Farmers should not change rabi plans based only on a national forecast. They should watch local rainfall, soil moisture and reservoir conditions before deciding on crop choices and sowing schedules.
El Niño remains a concern
The El Niño weather pattern has been linked to the weaker monsoon conditions, according to reports on the September outlook. El Niño refers to changes in sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that can influence weather patterns in different parts of the world.
India has experienced weaker monsoon seasons during some past El Niño events, although the impact can vary from year to year. Farmers do not need to make decisions based on El Niño alone. The immediate concern is what happens in their own district. A national weather pattern can influence the monsoon, but local rainfall can still differ significantly between states and districts.
What farmers can do during a dry spell
Farmers cannot control rainfall, but they can monitor their fields and use available water carefully.
During a prolonged dry period, they can consider:
- Checking crops regularly for moisture stress
- Using irrigation according to crop needs where water is available
- Avoiding unnecessary water loss from fields
- Following local agricultural advisories
- Monitoring district-level rainfall forecasts
- Planning rabi crops according to available soil moisture
Farmers should also avoid making unnecessary changes to fertiliser or pesticide use simply because rainfall has become weak.
Crop decisions should depend on the condition of the field and advice from local agricultural experts.
Local advisories will become more important
A national forecast gives farmers an indication of the wider weather situation, but local information is more useful for farm-level decisions. Agricultural universities, Krishi Vigyan Kendras and state agriculture departments can issue advisories based on conditions in specific districts.
Farmers should follow these updates closely during September. The below-normal rainfall forecast does not mean that every farmer will face crop losses. The effect will depend on local rainfall, irrigation access, soil type and the stage of the crop.
But the weak August and September outlook have increased the need for farmers to watch weather conditions closely. For now, the most important question is whether each farm has enough soil moisture to support crops through the coming weeks.
The answer may vary sharply from one district to another. The September rainfall pattern will therefore play an important role not only for standing kharif crops but also for how farmers prepare for the next rabi season.
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