The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country in July, a development that could influence Kharif crop growth during one of the most important months of the monsoon season. According to the forecast, rainfall during July is expected to be around 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), making the month drier than normal despite the southwest monsoon remaining active over large parts of the country.
The forecast comes after a difficult June, which recorded rainfall nearly 40 percent below normal and ranked among the driest Junes in more than a century. The rainfall deficit delayed sowing activities in several agricultural regions and raised concerns among farmers growing rice, soybean, cotton, pulses, and maize.
Agricultural experts say July rainfall will be crucial because most Kharif crops are either being sown or entering early growth stages during this period.
July is traditionally the wettest month of India’s southwest monsoon season and contributes significantly to annual rainfall totals. Adequate rainfall during this month helps farmers complete sowing operations and supports germination, root development, and early crop establishment.
A prolonged shortfall in rainfall could affect soil moisture availability, particularly in rainfed agricultural areas where irrigation infrastructure is limited. Farmers in central India, parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan are closely monitoring weather developments as the season progresses.
Researchers note that rainfall distribution often matters more than seasonal totals. Even when overall monsoon rainfall remains near normal, long dry spells during critical crop stages can affect productivity.
Some Regions May Receive Better Rainfall
While the overall outlook for July remains below normal, IMD expects certain parts of the country to receive normal or above-normal rainfall. Areas in northwest India, sections of northeast India, east-central India, and parts of the eastern peninsular region could receive better precipitation compared to other regions.
This uneven distribution means agricultural impacts may vary significantly from one state to another. Regions receiving adequate rainfall may witness improved sowing progress, while deficit areas could continue facing moisture stress.
State agriculture departments are expected to monitor conditions closely and issue advisories based on local rainfall patterns and crop requirements.
IMD has indicated that rainfall activity may improve during the first week of July. Good precipitation during this period could help reduce the current monsoon deficit and support ongoing sowing operations across major agricultural states.
Many farmers have delayed sowing while waiting for sufficient soil moisture. Improved rainfall during early July could encourage planting of rice, soybean, cotton, maize, and pulses across large parts of the country.
Agricultural scientists note that timely rainfall during the next few weeks will play a major role in determining the progress of the Kharif season.
Alongside the rainfall forecast, IMD has projected above-normal temperatures over many parts of the country during July. Higher temperatures can increase evaporation rates and place additional stress on crops, especially in regions already experiencing rainfall shortages.
Heat combined with limited soil moisture can affect crop establishment and increase irrigation requirements where water is available. Experts say farmers may need to pay closer attention to moisture conservation practices if dry conditions persist.
Weather variability has become an increasingly important factor influencing agricultural planning across India.
Crop Growth Will Depend on Rainfall Distribution
Agricultural experts believe it is still too early to predict major impacts on production because much of the season remains ahead. July and August together account for a large share of monsoon rainfall, and a recovery in precipitation during the coming weeks could improve crop prospects significantly.
Farmers, policymakers, and agricultural agencies will closely watch rainfall distribution rather than monthly totals alone. Consistent rainfall spread across crop-growing regions could help offset the effects of a dry June.
For now, the IMD forecast serves as an important reminder that the coming weeks will be critical for India’s Kharif season. The success of crops planted across millions of hectares may depend on how effectively the monsoon performs during the heart of the rainy season.
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