Kharif Sowing Has Almost Caught Up With Last Year, Why Are Farmers Still at Risk?

India’s kharif sowing season is ending much closer to last year’s level than farmers feared earlier in the monsoon. By September 4, farmers had planted 108.63 million hectares, only 1.6% below the area covered during the same period last year.

The latest figures may appear reassuring, but the national total hides problems affecting important crops. Rice, maize, soybean and cotton remain behind last year’s sowing levels, while uneven rainfall has left crops in several regions facing moisture stress during important stages of development.

The 108.63 million hectares planted by September 4 is also close to the agriculture ministry’s normal kharif area of 110.45 million hectares. This suggests farmers managed to narrow much of the sowing deficit despite weak and uneven monsoon rainfall during the season.

But acreage alone cannot tell farmers how much grain, oilseed or fibre will eventually be harvested. A crop can be planted successfully and still produce a poor yield if rainfall fails during flowering, pod formation, grain filling or other sensitive growth stages.

India’s rainfall remains around 13% below normal, with large differences between regions. Some farming areas received enough rain for sowing but later experienced long dry periods, while other locations received rainfall concentrated into a smaller number of heavy events.

This uneven distribution matters because crops require water throughout their growth cycle. A field that received enough rainfall during planting can still face serious moisture stress several weeks later. Farmers should therefore monitor current soil moisture rather than judge crop conditions from seasonal rainfall totals.

Rice remains behind last year

Rice is among the important kharif crops where planted area remains lower than last year. This matters because rice production depends not only on the area planted but also on water availability during crop establishment, tillering, flowering and grain development.

Farmers growing rainfed rice should watch crop condition closely during September. Fields showing moisture stress may need different management from those that retain sufficient water. Irrigated farmers should also avoid unnecessary water use and prioritise irrigation according to crop stage and actual field conditions.

Soybean is another crop where sowing remains behind last year’s level. The concern is greater because dry conditions during August have already affected soybean fields in Maharashtra, with farmers reporting wilting crops and fears of lower yields.

September rainfall could determine how much of the crop recovers. Farmers should inspect flowering and pod development, check moisture below the soil surface and identify fields facing the greatest stress. Limited irrigation, where available, should be directed towards crops at sensitive stages.

Cotton remains another crop where acreage trails last year. Because cotton stays in the field for a longer period than many kharif crops, weather conditions during the coming weeks can still influence plant growth, boll development, pest pressure and final production.

Farmers should continue regular field scouting even during dry weather. Moisture stress can weaken plants, while changing weather can alter pest activity. Farmers should identify the cause of leaf damage or poor growth before applying pesticides, fertilisers or other costly inputs. Maize has become increasingly important for food, livestock feed and ethanol production. Lower acreage can therefore affect several agricultural markets if yields also decline.

Farmers with standing maize should pay particular attention during flowering and grain formation. Water shortages during these stages can affect kernel development and final yield. Field-level conditions should guide irrigation decisions because moisture availability can differ even between nearby farms.

A planted field does not guarantee production

The difference between acreage and yield is important this year. India may finish the kharif season with planted area close to normal, but production will depend heavily on what happens to crops already standing in fields.

Former agriculture secretary Siraj Hussain has also cautioned that apparently normal acreage does not necessarily mean normal production. Uneven rainfall can reduce yields even when the total planted area remains relatively close to previous years.

September should be treated as a crop-monitoring period rather than simply the end of sowing. Farmers should walk through different parts of their fields and look for moisture stress, pest damage, diseases, weeds and uneven crop development.

They should avoid judging an entire field from plants growing near the road or boundary. Low-lying and elevated areas can behave differently. Checking several locations gives farmers a clearer picture before they spend money on irrigation, fertiliser or plant protection.

The rainfall received during September will also influence the next crop season. Moisture remaining after kharif harvesting can help farmers prepare land and establish wheat, mustard, chickpea and other rabi crops, particularly where irrigation remains limited.

A dry end to the monsoon could therefore create pressure across two seasons. Farmers may need water now to protect standing kharif crops while also trying to conserve enough groundwater or stored water for the rabi crop that follows.

Farmers should begin assessing water availability before purchasing rabi seed. They can check groundwater, irrigation sources, soil moisture and expected sowing windows before deciding how much land to place under each crop.

Where water availability appears limited, farmers should seek local advice about suitable crops and varieties. Switching crops without checking market demand can create another problem, so production decisions should consider both available water and likely buyers.

National figures can hide local losses

A national sowing deficit of only 1.6% can give the impression that the kharif season has largely recovered. For individual farmers, the situation can look very different.

A farmer whose soybean crop has wilted after weeks without rain gains little comfort from national acreage numbers. District rainfall, crop stage, soil type and irrigation access will determine what happens in each field during the remaining season.

The key number to watch now is no longer only the area planted. Farmers should follow September rainfall, reservoir and groundwater conditions, crop health and local agricultural advisories as the season moves towards harvest.

India has nearly closed its kharif sowing gap, but the crop is still standing in the field. Whether that acreage turns into a good harvest will depend on rainfall and crop conditions during the remaining weeks of the monsoon.